In the “color me not surprised” category, Nexon Korea announced they will be shutting down Astellia on January 16, 2020. I mentioned back in June (just before the first CBT for the western buy-to-play version was announced) about this potentially meeting the same fate as Bless Online and Warlords Awakening (if the game didn’t last in Korea). I also felt they had overpriced the game substantially. My own impressions of the first CBT was mixed (some of this due to the original Korean release).
The biggest red flag was how quickly the OBT in Korea de-populated; the OBT itself launched around the same time as the Lost Ark OBT (so November 2018) where one of the bigger issues was the slow pace of content updates (the game itself had been in development for 6 years) since it is known this will have an impact on any other region which the game ends up being published in.
As for how this will impact the western buy-to-play version, this is what Barunson noted on their forum:
I hate to be cynical (especially with BE&A because they’ve gone out of their way to not treat this like a blatant cash grab like what happened with Neowiz and Bless Online) but we’ve heard this song and dance before. Yes, Nexon has been undergoing organizational restructuring including pruning their library of games which they are publishing, but there are more fundamental issues with Astellia itself where it is clearly a niche game that won’t have broader appeal to bring in players. BE&A self publishes this western buy to play version (cutting out the middle man), has more direct control, and has also made some changes tailored to this market (including removing the gender lock). But the design team is still primarily Korea based.
While it makes PR sense to reassure western players, the reality which I’ve noted many times before on this blog is that once a game is unpublished in the home country, the design and development team effectively loses a lot of incentive to really work on the game. These Korean MMO studios aren’t properly setup with a global process in-mind (it’s the domestic Korean market first and if the executives find willing takers in other regions, it’s mainly seen as an added revenue source since the most expensive production work has already been completed).
Looking at BE&A’s content rollout for the western version via their news link is telling (it’s been mostly events, scheduled maintenance, a new area and associated content, and a mention about a content roadmap. This again is not surprising because the Korean version has not had much content added since its OBT soft launch.
What won’t help is this becoming a cycle that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy; players have this hangup with looking at their game purchases as an “investment” which feeds into the sunk cost fallacy. In this case, those same people will likely stay away from purchasing this game (or if they are already buyers, restrain themselves from making further marketplace purchases). Basically this news will have a chilling effect on the western versions revenue generating abilities.
I also believe they have been running into less than stellar metrics which led them to perform two trial weekends in late October and early November. Player retention is already a challenge in free to play titles. It’s even more challenging with buy to play ones which doesn’t have many knocking on the door to get in to fill the holes left by those who are falling off the engagement wagon. I will be very surprised if this makes it to even the first year unless they are able to republish in South Korea (either self-publish or with a smaller portal).
