I already posted my detailed opinion regarding the roadmap for the remainder of 2023 (which encompasses this update).
The key metric to watch is any concurrency increase (percentage wise) occurring after the update goes live (where it should create a noticeable bump in the following graph).
As I wrote previously, I highly doubt any of this roadmap will have a significant impact on this downwards trend with concurrency. The game will do fine with its existing base (end game raiders + whales) but isn’t sufficient to retain the more diverse demographic that runs the gambit from ultra-casuals, RPer’s, and those who have only a few hours to play each week.
I’ll be leveling up an aeromancer, but using the express pass on my deathblade main (which is parked at 1475). <- I changed my mind, and will be using the express pass on the aeromancer since the new South Vern pass gave a better gear set to start off from (compared to what my deathblade has). I don’t expect this update to hold my attention for long though (none of the priors ones have).
August 17 UPDATE: Unsurprisingly, the update did not see a drastic increase in concurrency.
Source: https://steamdb.info/app/1599340/charts/
The peak remained below where the average CCU’s were back in May (and well off the six digits monthly average the game saw during its first year in operation in the west). The 30 day average will be more telling though (but this already isn’t a good sign as far as attracting interest again from previous players, or getting a lot of completely new players).
Source: https://steamcharts.com/app/1599340
It’s hard to see them reversing this downwards trend even with the roadmap 2023 changes. Additionally, the fresh start servers will not resolve this. Matter of fact, it will highlight the games core issue with being unable to attract and retain new players.
If the fresh start population is primarily churn from already established veterans (who decide to try playing on them), this is going to be just like ArcheAge fresh starts (it’s been this veteran player churn for years where the first weeks look good, but then the steep drop off occurs where group content becomes a struggle due to the lack of population). With Lost Ark, it is worse due to the fact that the marketplace and auction house economies will be barren and stale (the current East/West split for NA highlights this), and most end game activities (all of the raids) will be impacted.
I suppose we will need to wait until they provide more details on these Jump-Start (fresh start) servers especially as it relates to how long they will be running (and how mergers will be handled). But without a significant bump in existing CCU’s, I don’t see these fresh start servers helping with increasing the new player population, or making a dent in retention.
